WBC, juiced HOFers, and Josh Barfield

Just some ranting today with little statistical measure to back any of it up...

I'm liking the WBC. With many players 'dropping out' of the 'World Baseball Battle Extrodinare' I was unsure if this exhibition was going to have any staying power and I have to say I hope it does. While team USA may not view this is the ultimate show of pride for your country and sport,(Jake Peavy notwithstanding) it seems the other countries DO feel this way, and it's important that as ambassadors to the sport we acknowledge that. I don't think it needs to be played every year, but maybe every four like the World Cup or Olympics. That way the players would change often, keeping it fresh. Even watching some of the non favored teams you see a mini all star lineup, and these guys have that fire in their eyes you only get from representing your native country in a competition where you're the underdog. I still want to see a US-Dominican final though...

The thought of writing anything more about Barry Bonds and his steroid abuse makes me yawn, but in light of the new book coming out I'll chime in again. I've always thought he used them, so it doesn't change much for me, but it will certainly make all those HOF voters think come 2011. The two arguments I see are this. One, he was basically a HOFer before he alledgedly started juicing(around 1998) so he's in anyway, or two, he tarnished the sport so he should have to be 'penalized' and not get in. I don't have a vote so I'm not really going to decide yet, but the fact that he's just so smug and refuses to admit guilt(let alone crusade that he's the victim here and everyone is out to get him) will undoubtedly put him in the Pete Rose category. McGwire, Sosa, and Raffy seem to understand that even though while they were doing this(and it's speculation of course) nobody seemed to care, it has now become a major disgrace to the game and they need to retire and keep out of sight until Cooperstown comes calling. I mean, has there even been a McGwire sighting since the government proceedings?

On a spring training note Josh Barfield has been tearing it up, and while it IS only ST, Padre fans can only hope that it continues into the season. It's one thing to win the starting job, but completely another thing to think we may have a solid young player that can play everyday and contribute NOW.

Prospect-less

Baseball America just posted their 'top 100 prospects' list and it looks like the only Padre to make an appearence was Cesar Carillo at #88. I'm a bit surprised Barfield isn't there, as he posted a very respectable .310/.370/.450 line in 137 games last season in AAA. Regardless, it's still pretty scary that our farm system is that bleak in terms of prospects that are close to seeing any major league time. In contrast, the rest of the NL West combined for 20(!) players on the list, with the Dodgers & Diamondbacks both very deep. AZ is particularly scary, as they have five of the top 23. That's a lot of talent. Without the payroll capabilities to buy free agents it may be a tough road for San Diego over the next few years until we start producing some players that can contibute. On a side note, the fifth overall rated prospect was AZ's Stephen Drew, who the Padres passed on(due to his salary demands) in favor of Matt Bush. Sometimes you need to just pay the piper...

Team Changes-part deux

Finishing up the changes made at each position...

Third base
In- Vinny Castilla
Out- Joe Randa, Sean Burroughs

The Pads finally cut their losses with the 'no-slugging' top prospect Burroughs, dealing him to the 'Fish' for a similar underachieving pitching prospect. Sean slugged an abysmal .299 in 284 ABs last season, low for even his standards. At age 25, it is still unclear whether the former #1 pick can develop some value at the plate, which would probably have to come in the form of a very high batting average.(he was always tagged with the 'possible future batting champ' analysis, but to date has a career average of just .282) I wish him the best though, and maybe the move will shake things up a bit and let him relax enough to achieve his potential. His demise made us acquire proven veteran Joe Randa for the post season run, who brought an .847 OPS to Petco. This didn't last long, as his OPS once suited in 'sand' colors was .698. Hopefully top AA prospect Justin Germano does not pan out, as this trade provided us with very little in terms of production. Which leaves us to the acquisition of FA Castilla. Outside of the friendly confines of Coors(and one year in Houston) Vinny has provided little with the bat, but has made himself into a decent defensive third baseman. He will turn 39 this year, and is obviously just a one year replacement until they decide what to do with the future of the 'hot corner.'

Impact
Being we haven't had anything out of third base(especially last season) since Nevin's monster 2001 campaign, this shouldn't make a bit of difference unless Castilla becomes completely useless. Then it's only a 'minor' dropoff. At least we don't have to sit around waiting for Burroughs to 'break out' anymore.

Outfield
In- Mike Cameron, Termel Sledge
Out- X.Nady

The Pads made a nice trade with the Mets in getting the long strided Cameron to patrol CF, as it is a park he is probably very suited for. All they gave up was the 27 year old 'prospect' Nady. The X-man never really got a shot to play much in Petco, and still may turn into a decent corner outfielder, but the clock is running out on him becoming anything but a utility player. Mets fans were quite disappointed in this trade,(if that means anything) even though Cameron has just a year left on his contract, and was out of position playing RF at Shea anyway. He strikes out a lot, but runs the bases fairly well, will draw walks, and hit 30 HRs in NY which is no easy task. Termel Sledge was part of the big Adam Eaton trade, and was basically just a throw in along with Young & Gonzales. At almost 29, he has little major league experience,(less than 500 ABs) and shouldn't contribute much.

Impact
As long as Roberts can platoon with someone(Barfield?) to combine for a 330+ OBP out of the leadoff spot our outfield is probably a slight upgrade from last season. Hopefully Ben Johnson can take a step forward and become a decent everyday player, although that would bump Roberts out of the lineup and again leave us with a question as to who hits #1.

Pitching
In-S.Estes, C.Young, A.Embree
Out- Eaton, Lawrence, Astacio, Otsuka, Hammond, Seanez

The big change in the rotation this season will be the departure of Adam Eaton, and the addition of C.Young. To be honest, I see this as only a winning situation as Chris is younger, signed for a few years at cheap dollars, and posted a line pretty similar to Eaton's last season in one of the toughest pitchers parks in the AL.(line vs. Eaton, 164ip, 12-7, 4.26 against Adam's 128ip, 11-5, 4.27) Eaton is 28, has never thrown 200 innings, and is in a walk year meaning, even if he does finally 'break out' with all his potential and put it together, he'd probably be too rich for us anyway. Estes is an average journeyman who should see some starts in place of Lawrence's absence, and Aki looked like he was starting to get figured out. A change of pace may reinvent his dominance, although Texas is not an easy place to do that.

Impact
If you can't post an ERA better than the league average at Petco then you're not much of a pitcher and Eaton & Lawrence will have their work cut out for them this season. Astacio is still a slim chance to sign, and losing Aki, Seanez, and Hammond may be tough but bullpen's tend to be 'hodgepodged' together anyway and we still have Trevor & Linebrink. Overall I don't think the moves will have much of an impact either way this season.

Play Ball!

With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training today, I declare it's time to run down the changes the team made and decide whether we are better off than we were last year. This does not take any injuries into consideration, whether they occurred last season or will possibly occur this season. It also does not take into account what the other teams in the NL West have done, as that will come later.

Looking at the UT today, it appears we have added players at every position except SS. Kevin Towers has been busier than most this off season, so let's break down the changes...

Catcher
In-M.Piazza & D.Mirabelli
Out-R.Hernandez & M.Olivo

Signing Ramon to a long term deal was a high priority in the beginning of the 05 season, and after he balked at a reported 3yrs/20mil or so deal it was put on the backburner. Hernandez reportedly wanted something in the range of J.Varitek's 4/40mil and the Pads said no way. He obviously hurt his free agency after getting injured and posting a .772 OPS in 369 ABs, hardly Varitek numbers. After the overpaying Mets traded for Paul LoDuca and dropped out of the picture, he settled for around 4yrs/27million with the Orioles, which is probably less than the Padres would have ultimately given him if he wanted to stick around. His injury enabled Miguel Olivo to get some playing time, and he delivered, posting a .828 OPS, well above his career average of what is now .674. While many thought the athletic catcher would be given a shot to start this year, the Pads went the other way, trading fan favorite Mark Loretta for Boston backup Mirabelli, who has posted a career .753 OPS which is respectable for a catcher. While this trade seemed a little lop sided at the time, I could only assume they thought the only thing that was keeping him from being a good everyday player was being stuck behind Varitek. But apparently this wasn't the case, as they then went out and signed the FA Piazza to a 1yr deal worth around 2mil + incentives. Piazza has been on the decline for several years now, and is far from the player he once was. He had the worst steals/caught stealing ratio in baseball last year, and with Petco's spacious outfield it will be hard to imagine he'll even post the .778 OPS he had with the Mets last season in 398 ABs.

Impact- While it would have been nice to have Ramon back, I can understand the Padres balking at his salary demands, specifically when a lot of the money was still being given based on his 'potential.' A four year contract for a catcher that will turn 30 in May is a heavy tab if injuries occur or production does not improve. I'm a bit surprised they didn't keep Olivo and let him compete for the job, rendering him a backup if Mirabelli did work out as a starter, also saving the couple million Piazza will get. Overall this is a downgrade from last year, but it's hard to determine by how much yet based on ether's value and what production Hernandez gives Baltimore throughout the contract.

First Base
In-Adrian Hernandez

While the 1b job will go to Klesko this season(who's in the last year of his whopper contract), the Pads traded for the young stud power prospect out of Eastlake High. Adrian was the overall #1 pick a few seasons back, and had a chunky .950+ Ops in limited AAA time last year. Also adept with the glove, Hernandez is obviously the future at first, and may be the young all star power bat we've lacked for years. Lighting a fire under Klesko in his walk year certainly shouldn't hurt his numbers either, and while I have no problem with Klesko getting 450 ABs if he's productive, I would love to see the torch passed at some point this year.

Impact- While Mark Sweeney had a nice 200+ Abs out of the position last season, little else was productive, and getting Klesko out of the outfield will at least prevent me from pulling my hair out every time a ball is hit to left. Ryno's health and Adrian's readiness are question marks but this should be a substantial upgrade at first base.

Second Base
In- M.Bellhorn, J.Barfield
Out-M.Loretta

While it is sad to see Loretta go, it's hard to imagine he'll ever be anywhere near as productive as his 04 campaign, where he posted a ridiculous .886 OPS. He was in the last year of his contract, will turn 35 in August, and would probably not have been resigned. And while he was hurt last season, his .707 OPS showed NONE of the power he had in 04, as he may be regressing back to somewhere near his career .773 number. I would like to think this trade was made strictly because the Padres feel Barfield is ready to get significant playing time in the bigs. If they don't it really makes little sense. Mark Bellhorn was signed for low dollars as a stop gap if needed, and has had very similar numbers to Loretta throughout his career.

impact-While losing a pro like Loretta hurts the clubhouse, I don't think the overall production will fall off much, especially if Barfield is ready to become an everyday player. This is a move made for the future, and being we won just 82 games last year that's not a bad thing.

Tomorrow-the rest of the changes

HOF 2006

Sorry about the major lag time....I've been, ummmm, busy or something...

Taking nothing away from Rob Neyer's article today about relief pitchers being 'less valuable' and so must be held to the highest standard in the hall(like punters & kickers in the football HOF, which BTW there is a combined, 'one') How do you elect Sutter over Gossage when:

They had similar ERAs(2.83 - 3.00)
Gossage threw almost twice as many innings(appx 1000 - 1800)
Gossage had longevity ( 22seasons to 12!)

Sutter only had 6 seasons where he even appeared in 60 games. Just to contrast, let's say, Trevor, Hoffman has done that nine times. With a lower ERA to boot. And 120+ more saves. I'm real surprised here, and if you're going to compare relievers now to Bruce Sutter I think it unjustly opens the floodgates for lots of guys who probably don't belong. Like many(including Neyer) I am of the mindset that most pitchers become closers because they're not good enough to start, and how many B+ starters, if converted, would be capable of Sutter numbers? Hard to say, but I imagine more than people think. Hell, John Smoltz(who's hardly a lock for the hall) was lights out, late in his career, AND converted back to being an effective starter. With so many guys who had great careers and gave tremendous value playing everyday, I think Dawson, Trammell, Rice etc should be pretty pissed about now...

Pads run into Kryptonite.

And it came in the form of Doug Davis....

Well the balloon was swelling to such enormous proportions that at some time the air needed to leak out. Davis had the Pads guessing most of the night, and Lawrence was just awful. Then again, he DID take one for the team as the tired bullpen needed a break before a long series with the Cubs. B-Law was hit hard early & often, and it was the friendly confines of Petco that kept the score as low as it was. A grandslam by Blum in the bottom of the ninth would have been ridiculously too much to ask for. Some notes...

-Blum had his 6th straight multi-hit game, and is really looking a bit like Loretta from last year. Mabey opportunity coupled with finally figuring a few things out will make him a solid everyday player for a few years.

-SD is three runs shy of St.Louis' league leading 270 runs scored, and have the best home record in baseball.

-Giles leads all baseball in walks(43), and his .930 OPS is making it unlikely he'll resign w/the Pads next year as he'll probably command a three year deal at high dollars. Being he'll be suited to basically playing LF, this is exactly the type of contract the Pads DON'T want to get stuck with.(see Phil Nevin)

-Hernandez on the other hand just turned 29, and a three year deal would be ideal. Unfortunately he wants four, and in the 10mil range. Too much for a guy who has nice(but not exceptional) power, and doesn't draw many walks. His .804 OPS is probably what you'd expect from him throughout the contract(w/mabey a peak .850 year) and I say that's worth 3yrs/25mil tops.

-Stauffer goes tonight and has gone at least 5.2 innings each outing with ERs of 2,3,4,2. Very impressive.

With the four game series upcoming with Chicago, we miss Wood & Prior(both on the DL) which should make it a very winable series. Woody may pitch Saturday instead of May, and Peavy vs. Zambrano Sunday is a great young pitching matchup.

Don't jinx it..

I'm almost hesitant to write about how well the Friars are playing for fear I'll jinx it. The confidence each guy has right now when he steps up to the plate is a joy to watch. A month ago it seemed like if we were down a few runs after the fifth it was over. Keep it up!!

Pads are leading the league right now in runners left on base. While this can be a good thing(guys are getting on), I think in our case it is more attributed to low slugging%. Loretta particularly is an interesting case as his avg/OBP(.291/.381) looks very similiar to last season, but his slugging%(.335) is just awful. This is a guy who hit 47(!) doubles last year and 16 homers. This year he's hit just 5 doubles and ZERO HRs. Of course, in the scope of things, these numbers more reflect his career path, and we may have just been REALLY spoiled in 04. Klesko continues to mash, currrently to the tune of a .945 OPS. This would eclipse his career best marks he had of .923 & .925, after which he signed that big $ deal. It's about time we're getting some real return on that. On the flip side is Nevin, who's .723 OPS is beyond pathetic, and has warranted a drop in the lineup for weeks now. Hell, Boch! Can't you see what it did for Giles!

Around the league....

-Two shortstops are currently leading their league in batting average, and neither are named Jeter/Rodriguez/Garciaparra. Expect Barmes & Guillen to be household names in a couple years.

-Willis & Garland are both 7-0 and try to stay unbeaten tonight. Willis has just been ridiculous, also posting a 1.08 ERA.

-Miguel Cabrera currently posts a 1.020 OPS and just turned 22 years old. The next Albert Pujols.

-Tino Martinez is obviously taking flaxseed oil, as he's tied for the league lead with 12 bombs. As Steinbrenner said, he's a 'true' Yankee, because he's sucked everywhere else recently. Plus I suddenly hate him again.

-Manny Ramirez just hit HR #400, and at age 32, may already be a HOF lock.

Here's to Darrell May looking like anybody but Darrell May tonight!