FriarFlogger

WBC, juiced HOFers, and Josh Barfield

2006-03-10T09:27:00.000-08:00

Just some ranting today with little statistical measure to back any of it up...

I'm liking the WBC. With many players 'dropping out' of the 'World Baseball Battle Extrodinare' I was unsure if this exhibition was going to have any staying power and I have to say I hope it does. While team USA may not view this is the ultimate show of pride for your country and sport,(Jake Peavy notwithstanding) it seems the other countries DO feel this way, and it's important that as ambassadors to the sport we acknowledge that. I don't think it needs to be played every year, but maybe every four like the World Cup or Olympics. That way the players would change often, keeping it fresh. Even watching some of the non favored teams you see a mini all star lineup, and these guys have that fire in their eyes you only get from representing your native country in a competition where you're the underdog. I still want to see a US-Dominican final though...

The thought of writing anything more about Barry Bonds and his steroid abuse makes me yawn, but in light of the new book coming out I'll chime in again. I've always thought he used them, so it doesn't change much for me, but it will certainly make all those HOF voters think come 2011. The two arguments I see are this. One, he was basically a HOFer before he alledgedly started juicing(around 1998) so he's in anyway, or two, he tarnished the sport so he should have to be 'penalized' and not get in. I don't have a vote so I'm not really going to decide yet, but the fact that he's just so smug and refuses to admit guilt(let alone crusade that he's the victim here and everyone is out to get him) will undoubtedly put him in the Pete Rose category. McGwire, Sosa, and Raffy seem to understand that even though while they were doing this(and it's speculation of course) nobody seemed to care, it has now become a major disgrace to the game and they need to retire and keep out of sight until Cooperstown comes calling. I mean, has there even been a McGwire sighting since the government proceedings?

On a spring training note Josh Barfield has been tearing it up, and while it IS only ST, Padre fans can only hope that it continues into the season. It's one thing to win the starting job, but completely another thing to think we may have a solid young player that can play everyday and contribute NOW.

Prospect-less

2006-02-27T10:17:00.000-08:00

Baseball America just posted their 'top 100 prospects' list and it looks like the only Padre to make an appearence was Cesar Carillo at #88. I'm a bit surprised Barfield isn't there, as he posted a very respectable .310/.370/.450 line in 137 games last season in AAA. Regardless, it's still pretty scary that our farm system is that bleak in terms of prospects that are close to seeing any major league time. In contrast, the rest of the NL West combined for 20(!) players on the list, with the Dodgers & Diamondbacks both very deep. AZ is particularly scary, as they have five of the top 23. That's a lot of talent. Without the payroll capabilities to buy free agents it may be a tough road for San Diego over the next few years until we start producing some players that can contibute. On a side note, the fifth overall rated prospect was AZ's Stephen Drew, who the Padres passed on(due to his salary demands) in favor of Matt Bush. Sometimes you need to just pay the piper...

Team Changes-part deux

2006-02-20T17:09:00.000-08:00

Finishing up the changes made at each position...

Third base
In- Vinny Castilla
Out- Joe Randa, Sean Burroughs

The Pads finally cut their losses with the 'no-slugging' top prospect Burroughs, dealing him to the 'Fish' for a similar underachieving pitching prospect. Sean slugged an abysmal .299 in 284 ABs last season, low for even his standards. At age 25, it is still unclear whether the former #1 pick can develop some value at the plate, which would probably have to come in the form of a very high batting average.(he was always tagged with the 'possible future batting champ' analysis, but to date has a career average of just .282) I wish him the best though, and maybe the move will shake things up a bit and let him relax enough to achieve his potential. His demise made us acquire proven veteran Joe Randa for the post season run, who brought an .847 OPS to Petco. This didn't last long, as his OPS once suited in 'sand' colors was .698. Hopefully top AA prospect Justin Germano does not pan out, as this trade provided us with very little in terms of production. Which leaves us to the acquisition of FA Castilla. Outside of the friendly confines of Coors(and one year in Houston) Vinny has provided little with the bat, but has made himself into a decent defensive third baseman. He will turn 39 this year, and is obviously just a one year replacement until they decide what to do with the future of the 'hot corner.'

Impact
Being we haven't had anything out of third base(especially last season) since Nevin's monster 2001 campaign, this shouldn't make a bit of difference unless Castilla becomes completely useless. Then it's only a 'minor' dropoff. At least we don't have to sit around waiting for Burroughs to 'break out' anymore.

Outfield
In- Mike Cameron, Termel Sledge
Out- X.Nady

The Pads made a nice trade with the Mets in getting the long strided Cameron to patrol CF, as it is a park he is probably very suited for. All they gave up was the 27 year old 'prospect' Nady. The X-man never really got a shot to play much in Petco, and still may turn into a decent corner outfielder, but the clock is running out on him becoming anything but a utility player. Mets fans were quite disappointed in this trade,(if that means anything) even though Cameron has just a year left on his contract, and was out of position playing RF at Shea anyway. He strikes out a lot, but runs the bases fairly well, will draw walks, and hit 30 HRs in NY which is no easy task. Termel Sledge was part of the big Adam Eaton trade, and was basically just a throw in along with Young & Gonzales. At almost 29, he has little major league experience,(less than 500 ABs) and shouldn't contribute much.

Impact
As long as Roberts can platoon with someone(Barfield?) to combine for a 330+ OBP out of the leadoff spot our outfield is probably a slight upgrade from last season. Hopefully Ben Johnson can take a step forward and become a decent everyday player, although that would bump Roberts out of the lineup and again leave us with a question as to who hits #1.

Pitching
In-S.Estes, C.Young, A.Embree
Out- Eaton, Lawrence, Astacio, Otsuka, Hammond, Seanez

The big change in the rotation this season will be the departure of Adam Eaton, and the addition of C.Young. To be honest, I see this as only a winning situation as Chris is younger, signed for a few years at cheap dollars, and posted a line pretty similar to Eaton's last season in one of the toughest pitchers parks in the AL.(line vs. Eaton, 164ip, 12-7, 4.26 against Adam's 128ip, 11-5, 4.27) Eaton is 28, has never thrown 200 innings, and is in a walk year meaning, even if he does finally 'break out' with all his potential and put it together, he'd probably be too rich for us anyway. Estes is an average journeyman who should see some starts in place of Lawrence's absence, and Aki looked like he was starting to get figured out. A change of pace may reinvent his dominance, although Texas is not an easy place to do that.

Impact
If you can't post an ERA better than the league average at Petco then you're not much of a pitcher and Eaton & Lawrence will have their work cut out for them this season. Astacio is still a slim chance to sign, and losing Aki, Seanez, and Hammond may be tough but bullpen's tend to be 'hodgepodged' together anyway and we still have Trevor & Linebrink. Overall I don't think the moves will have much of an impact either way this season.

Play Ball!

2006-02-16T14:43:00.000-08:00

With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training today, I declare it's time to run down the changes the team made and decide whether we are better off than we were last year. This does not take any injuries into consideration, whether they occurred last season or will possibly occur this season. It also does not take into account what the other teams in the NL West have done, as that will come later.

Looking at the UT today, it appears we have added players at every position except SS. Kevin Towers has been busier than most this off season, so let's break down the changes...

Catcher
In-M.Piazza & D.Mirabelli
Out-R.Hernandez & M.Olivo

Signing Ramon to a long term deal was a high priority in the beginning of the 05 season, and after he balked at a reported 3yrs/20mil or so deal it was put on the backburner. Hernandez reportedly wanted something in the range of J.Varitek's 4/40mil and the Pads said no way. He obviously hurt his free agency after getting injured and posting a .772 OPS in 369 ABs, hardly Varitek numbers. After the overpaying Mets traded for Paul LoDuca and dropped out of the picture, he settled for around 4yrs/27million with the Orioles, which is probably less than the Padres would have ultimately given him if he wanted to stick around. His injury enabled Miguel Olivo to get some playing time, and he delivered, posting a .828 OPS, well above his career average of what is now .674. While many thought the athletic catcher would be given a shot to start this year, the Pads went the other way, trading fan favorite Mark Loretta for Boston backup Mirabelli, who has posted a career .753 OPS which is respectable for a catcher. While this trade seemed a little lop sided at the time, I could only assume they thought the only thing that was keeping him from being a good everyday player was being stuck behind Varitek. But apparently this wasn't the case, as they then went out and signed the FA Piazza to a 1yr deal worth around 2mil + incentives. Piazza has been on the decline for several years now, and is far from the player he once was. He had the worst steals/caught stealing ratio in baseball last year, and with Petco's spacious outfield it will be hard to imagine he'll even post the .778 OPS he had with the Mets last season in 398 ABs.

Impact- While it would have been nice to have Ramon back, I can understand the Padres balking at his salary demands, specifically when a lot of the money was still being given based on his 'potential.' A four year contract for a catcher that will turn 30 in May is a heavy tab if injuries occur or production does not improve. I'm a bit surprised they didn't keep Olivo and let him compete for the job, rendering him a backup if Mirabelli did work out as a starter, also saving the couple million Piazza will get. Overall this is a downgrade from last year, but it's hard to determine by how much yet based on ether's value and what production Hernandez gives Baltimore throughout the contract.

First Base
In-Adrian Hernandez

While the 1b job will go to Klesko this season(who's in the last year of his whopper contract), the Pads traded for the young stud power prospect out of Eastlake High. Adrian was the overall #1 pick a few seasons back, and had a chunky .950+ Ops in limited AAA time last year. Also adept with the glove, Hernandez is obviously the future at first, and may be the young all star power bat we've lacked for years. Lighting a fire under Klesko in his walk year certainly shouldn't hurt his numbers either, and while I have no problem with Klesko getting 450 ABs if he's productive, I would love to see the torch passed at some point this year.

Impact- While Mark Sweeney had a nice 200+ Abs out of the position last season, little else was productive, and getting Klesko out of the outfield will at least prevent me from pulling my hair out every time a ball is hit to left. Ryno's health and Adrian's readiness are question marks but this should be a substantial upgrade at first base.

Second Base
In- M.Bellhorn, J.Barfield
Out-M.Loretta

While it is sad to see Loretta go, it's hard to imagine he'll ever be anywhere near as productive as his 04 campaign, where he posted a ridiculous .886 OPS. He was in the last year of his contract, will turn 35 in August, and would probably not have been resigned. And while he was hurt last season, his .707 OPS showed NONE of the power he had in 04, as he may be regressing back to somewhere near his career .773 number. I would like to think this trade was made strictly because the Padres feel Barfield is ready to get significant playing time in the bigs. If they don't it really makes little sense. Mark Bellhorn was signed for low dollars as a stop gap if needed, and has had very similar numbers to Loretta throughout his career.

impact-While losing a pro like Loretta hurts the clubhouse, I don't think the overall production will fall off much, especially if Barfield is ready to become an everyday player. This is a move made for the future, and being we won just 82 games last year that's not a bad thing.

Tomorrow-the rest of the changes

HOF 2006

2006-01-10T13:35:00.000-08:00

Sorry about the major lag time....I've been, ummmm, busy or something...

Taking nothing away from Rob Neyer's article today about relief pitchers being 'less valuable' and so must be held to the highest standard in the hall(like punters & kickers in the football HOF, which BTW there is a combined, 'one') How do you elect Sutter over Gossage when:

They had similar ERAs(2.83 - 3.00)
Gossage threw almost twice as many innings(appx 1000 - 1800)
Gossage had longevity ( 22seasons to 12!)

Sutter only had 6 seasons where he even appeared in 60 games. Just to contrast, let's say, Trevor, Hoffman has done that nine times. With a lower ERA to boot. And 120+ more saves. I'm real surprised here, and if you're going to compare relievers now to Bruce Sutter I think it unjustly opens the floodgates for lots of guys who probably don't belong. Like many(including Neyer) I am of the mindset that most pitchers become closers because they're not good enough to start, and how many B+ starters, if converted, would be capable of Sutter numbers? Hard to say, but I imagine more than people think. Hell, John Smoltz(who's hardly a lock for the hall) was lights out, late in his career, AND converted back to being an effective starter. With so many guys who had great careers and gave tremendous value playing everyday, I think Dawson, Trammell, Rice etc should be pretty pissed about now...

Pads run into Kryptonite.

2005-06-02T14:21:00.000-07:00

And it came in the form of Doug Davis....

Well the balloon was swelling to such enormous proportions that at some time the air needed to leak out. Davis had the Pads guessing most of the night, and Lawrence was just awful. Then again, he DID take one for the team as the tired bullpen needed a break before a long series with the Cubs. B-Law was hit hard early & often, and it was the friendly confines of Petco that kept the score as low as it was. A grandslam by Blum in the bottom of the ninth would have been ridiculously too much to ask for. Some notes...

-Blum had his 6th straight multi-hit game, and is really looking a bit like Loretta from last year. Mabey opportunity coupled with finally figuring a few things out will make him a solid everyday player for a few years.

-SD is three runs shy of St.Louis' league leading 270 runs scored, and have the best home record in baseball.

-Giles leads all baseball in walks(43), and his .930 OPS is making it unlikely he'll resign w/the Pads next year as he'll probably command a three year deal at high dollars. Being he'll be suited to basically playing LF, this is exactly the type of contract the Pads DON'T want to get stuck with.(see Phil Nevin)

-Hernandez on the other hand just turned 29, and a three year deal would be ideal. Unfortunately he wants four, and in the 10mil range. Too much for a guy who has nice(but not exceptional) power, and doesn't draw many walks. His .804 OPS is probably what you'd expect from him throughout the contract(w/mabey a peak .850 year) and I say that's worth 3yrs/25mil tops.

-Stauffer goes tonight and has gone at least 5.2 innings each outing with ERs of 2,3,4,2. Very impressive.

With the four game series upcoming with Chicago, we miss Wood & Prior(both on the DL) which should make it a very winable series. Woody may pitch Saturday instead of May, and Peavy vs. Zambrano Sunday is a great young pitching matchup.

Don't jinx it..

2005-05-17T10:41:00.000-07:00

I'm almost hesitant to write about how well the Friars are playing for fear I'll jinx it. The confidence each guy has right now when he steps up to the plate is a joy to watch. A month ago it seemed like if we were down a few runs after the fifth it was over. Keep it up!!

Pads are leading the league right now in runners left on base. While this can be a good thing(guys are getting on), I think in our case it is more attributed to low slugging%. Loretta particularly is an interesting case as his avg/OBP(.291/.381) looks very similiar to last season, but his slugging%(.335) is just awful. This is a guy who hit 47(!) doubles last year and 16 homers. This year he's hit just 5 doubles and ZERO HRs. Of course, in the scope of things, these numbers more reflect his career path, and we may have just been REALLY spoiled in 04. Klesko continues to mash, currrently to the tune of a .945 OPS. This would eclipse his career best marks he had of .923 & .925, after which he signed that big $ deal. It's about time we're getting some real return on that. On the flip side is Nevin, who's .723 OPS is beyond pathetic, and has warranted a drop in the lineup for weeks now. Hell, Boch! Can't you see what it did for Giles!

Around the league....

-Two shortstops are currently leading their league in batting average, and neither are named Jeter/Rodriguez/Garciaparra. Expect Barmes & Guillen to be household names in a couple years.

-Willis & Garland are both 7-0 and try to stay unbeaten tonight. Willis has just been ridiculous, also posting a 1.08 ERA.

-Miguel Cabrera currently posts a 1.020 OPS and just turned 22 years old. The next Albert Pujols.

-Tino Martinez is obviously taking flaxseed oil, as he's tied for the league lead with 12 bombs. As Steinbrenner said, he's a 'true' Yankee, because he's sucked everywhere else recently. Plus I suddenly hate him again.

-Manny Ramirez just hit HR #400, and at age 32, may already be a HOF lock.

Here's to Darrell May looking like anybody but Darrell May tonight!

Friars Flyin....

2005-05-10T13:35:00.000-07:00

Wow. We go to St. Louis and take three of four and then come back from four down in the 9th to beat Cincy. Suddenly this team seems to be showing some nads! Bochy obviously saves up his tirades until we hit rock bottom, and then WHAM, he unleashes his fury. Without a contract for next year, he may want to break them out a little more often. While it's obvious Sandy Alderson will have some time to analyze the situation, it might be the high road for Bruce if he can't bring us to at least the brink of the division title.

Tim Stauffer makes his big league debut tonight, being brought up after Tim Redding tore his shoulder and will probably miss 3-4 weeks. At 22, Stauffer was posting nice AAA stats(2-0, 2.33) and was a number one pick(4th overall) out of U. of Richmond in 02. This could be a blessing in disguise, as we haven't had production from the 5th slot in a long time. Stauffer is polished for his age, and can't possibly be worse than the combo we've thrown out there since Valdez left last season. With Woody down as well, it would be great to see the kid put up some quality starts...

-Pads are currently 6th in the NL in runs scored, although just 13th in OPS.

-Bullpen is currently 2nd in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Good, Bad, & Ugly

2005-05-05T11:36:00.000-07:00

The Good
Pads win much needed 4of the last 5, sweeping the lowly Rocks.

The Bad
We now play four in St. Louis, and neither Peavy or W.Williams will be starting.

The Ugly
Brian Giles is hitting .175, and he's still hitting third.

Well, we've clawed back to .500, but it'd be very optimistic to think we can even split w/the Cards. Darrell May tomorrow night may be uglier than Giles. Mabey Redding can get a rise out of his one game win streak and throw a gem on Sunday. Klesko obviously is happy to have his power back with the way he's been flipping his bat. With Blum on the DL, it will be nice to get Khalil back after the weekend...

Misc. Stats

2005-04-28T13:28:00.000-07:00

Screw the Pads today. They're playing like a pile of crap. Please get Sandy Alderson in here pronto. I don't know if anyone else is tired of Bochy looking half asleep all the time, only to bust out a 'We're not playing well' after a prolonged slump. I don't expect him to be Larry Bowa, but I havn't gotten the feeling in a long time that Bruce does ANYTHING to inspire this team. Hell, do we even have a gameplan when we go up to bat!?

Anyway, around the league...

-Ex Pad Derrek Lee(traded for K.Brown in 98) currently owns the NL triple crown outright with a ridiculous .430/7/27 line. Who says all I mention is OPS?

-42 yr old Roger Clemens has a .32(!) era in 4 starts. He is 1-0 thanks to the team scoring just 1 run in his 28 innings. By the way, he drove that run in himself.

-AL Cy Young winner J.Santana is off to a 4-0 start with a K/BB ratio of 45/3

-Carlos Guillen(the best shortstop in baseball no one knows about) is leading the AL with a .406 avg. His .921 OPS last year topped all shortstops including M.Tejada who drove in 150 runs.

-Speaking of Tejada, he's second in the AL w/25rbi. Got to wonder if Beane made the right choice in keeping Chavez instead.

-Who says you have to 'acquire' a closer? 25 yr old Brandon Lyon of AZ leads the majors with 10 saves already.(Trevor has 3)

-Speaking of AZ, they've won 6 straight. I don't know who told them they could win the division this year, but it's working.

-Neifi Perez has a 1.029 ops. His career ops is .686, his last two seasons being .632 & .633. Can our team please acquire some of whatever he is on?(flax seed oil mabey?)

We're due to come around, and AZ is due to cool off so how about this weekend please!? Anna Kournakova throws out the first pitch tomorrow...that has to be a good omen.

Three and Ouch Revisited...

2005-04-25T12:39:00.000-07:00

Another weekend of near lifeless baseball played against a division rival. Going to the 'Bob' has not been kind to the Padres since it's existence, and this trip didn't change that. The offense right now is sputtering, and our team OPS of .718 is fourth worst in the NL. Peavy took a tough 'no-decision' on Saturday, and with Bochy giving him the quick hook when he nears 100 pitches, may see more of the same this year. Some observations:
-Loretta has just 2 extra base hits
-Nevin has drawn only 4 walks, and has an OBP of .244
-Giles/Loretta/Klesko have drawn 40 walks
-Loretta has stolen 6 bases so far, 3 off his career high
-Nady's bat needs to be in the lineup every game
-Burroughs 'slappy' style of hitting looks identical to last year
-Geoff Blum will adequately fill in for Greene
-Phil needs to drop below Hernandez in the order until he finds his swing. He's a consistent rally killer right now.

Let's keep beating up the Giants before Bonds returns. It's the only thing we have going for us...

Three and Ouch

2005-04-18T08:50:00.000-07:00

I know. It's early in the year and blah, blah, blah. One series in April hardly makes a season. But while many stressed how important it would be to start fast and get a jump on the Bonds-less Giants, apparently only the Dodgers took it to heart. The Pads looked anemic this weekend, and it wasn't any fun to watch. They were shut out twice! Now don't get me wrong. Both Weaver and Lowe had filthy stuff, and both are very capable of those types of games throughout the season. But the Pads just looked lifeless against their arch-rivals, and with Greene out for a month will really have to play solid ball to keep from falling too far behind. When you start the season with Colorado & Pittsburgh, you should be better than 5-7.

Some notes: Dodgers are 9-2, and haven't lost a series. So much for Jeff Kent looking old. Apparently he caught whatever Beltre had last year. God forbid Drew and Choi come around soon. Pads only mustered 14 hits and 5 walks this weekend. Nady finally cooled off, with just 1 hit. Nevin looks terrible. This tends to happen to Phil from time to time, where he swings like every ball needs to travel 500 feet. Unfortunately when you're the cleanup hitter in a lineup w/o slugging stars, this really turns into a rally killer. Geoff Blum's 31, and his career PT numbers show stats similar to Greene's. If he can play SS, he might fill in OK. On the other hand, Garcia is also 31, and history has no indication he'll hit at all. Hope he's on a short leash. Redding looked decent yesterday minus the long balls. If he can fix the problem, he'll be a solid #5 starter.

Let's sweep those Cubs!

2005-04-13T12:39:00.001-07:00

After the first game of the doubleheader, the Pads are in the driver seat. Peavy looked strong as usual through 7 innings. Bochy actually let him throw over 100 pitches!(102) Let's hope Prior looks as rusty as Wood did as he couldn't find the plate and fell behind alot. Nady looks for real. Four hits including two doubles he crushed into the gaps. He's no hack in CF either. I can't see him coming out of the lineup when Roberts gets back. Burroughs better keep swinging the bat or he may be sitting. Hyzdu made a great catch after replacing Klesko for D. But the guy can't hit a lick. I can't remember the last pro I've seen that swings and misses so badly.

Let's sweep those Cubs!

2005-04-13T12:39:00.000-07:00

Pads Away!

2005-04-06T11:19:00.000-07:00

Well after one game at the launching pad that is Coors field, it's hard to really decipher anything yet. It would be easy to jump on Woody and Trevor but it's only one game, in CO no less, so it's hard to get too upset. But is there any worse way to lose than your closer coughing up multiple runs!? Being a Met fan as well, I had to watch Looper do the same thing earlier against the Reds. A double ouch. One thing you can say about the Pads is that if Hernandez potential is for real, they may actually score quite a few runs this year. Keeping Nady over Bay is still a reach, but the ball just jumps off that guys bat. And he's obviously a better athelete than Bay, who's basically an average LF at best. Time will tell. Giles may also be an X-factor this year as he's playing for what will probably be his last multi-year contract. I say let him play all season for his dollars, and if he's cheap enough, resign him after the season. Remember the Pads payroll right now for '07' is a measly 7mil, and you can buy a lot of bat with that kind of flexibility. Another note on Trevor...he's looking close to done. While he saved 40+ games last year, he looked very hittable at times, with a nice jump in ERA. Problem w/Hoffy is that he needs pinpoint control with his fastball, AND has to be able to throw the changeup for a strike to be effective. Two things that may fall off w/age. I can see him as possibly an 8th inning setup guy next season, but losing games in the 9th will put you on a short leash. So let's hope he's not done. Hope Adam 'Jekyll' Eaton shows up tonight instead of Mister Hyde. Hate to start the homestand at 0-2....

Play Ball!

2005-04-04T11:01:00.000-07:00

Well 2005 is underway, and the outcome of the first game is Yankees-1, RedSox-0. Actually it was 9-2 Yanks, as David Wells got beat up for 10 hits in 4+ innings, and Randy Johnson, well, looked like Randy Johnson. Now that he's pitching in front of a lineup that can mash, he's got Cy Young #6 right in his sights if he can make all his starts. If he does? I predict 25 wins. And that's not something that happens very often these days...

Pads open today in Coors, and hopefully Woody can survive w/o a brutal 'mile-high' beating. Same goes for Eaton on Wednesday. Got to hate to be a pitcher making your first start of the season in CO. A few notes around the league. Ichiro nearly hit .500 this spring and after the way he closed last year has a legitimate shot at .400, especially with newly acquired bats Beltre & Sexson hitting behind him. Albert Pujols has not struck out yet. Look for another MVP run with better results now that Bonds will miss time AND be off the juice...

Interesting payroll tidbit in the paper today, the Pads will shell out appx. 65mil in salaries this year, but drop to only 28m guaranteed in 06, and just 7mil in 07. That is MAJOR flexibility shortly down the road. The list of players who are in the last year of a contract include T.Hoffman(who incidentally needs just 7 saves to hit 400, and 31 to catch J.Franco at 424, who is currently second all time but an active player, albeit one who may not register another save), C.Hernandez(who I think they really should try and sign now), B.Giles(show me first what you're really worth), D.Roberts(already missing time) and manager Bruce Bochy. The sportswriters seem to be giving ownership beef about not extending his contract, but short of 96 & 98 when we went to the postseason, Bochy hasn't really produced anything in the last 10 years. Granted he's had a pile of shit to work with most seasons, but last year was an exception, and we really didn't 'overachieve' by any means, so I think they want to see if he can get them over the top this year. If not, you have to question if he's really any better than anyone else. I know his 'laid back' style fits San Diego well, but if you have the players to win and you're coming up short, someone has to take the blame.

2005 Player Preview

2005-03-29T20:58:00.000-08:00

Starting Pitching

The Pads bring back three starters from last year,(Peavy, Lawrence, & Eaton) and replace old man David Wells with old man Woody Williams. Tim Redding was acquired in a trade to fill the five spot.

SP-Jake Peavy...The 23yr old looked like a cagey veteran last season, becoming the youngest player to lead the league in ERA since Dwight Gooden back in 85.(Dr.K was 20 by the way and had a ridiculous 1.53..sick) Jake's pitching load was handled gingerly by the coaching staff due to his age, and if healthy should go deeper into starts this year. Peavy barely qualified for the ERA title with 166 innings last year(he missed a few starts due to injury), and could be a Cy Young candidate if he can throw 200+ innings. The Pads were smart to lock him up for four more years, as he has the stuff to be the stopper they haven't had since Kevin Brown in 98.

SP-Woody Williams...Acquired as a free agent after Wells signed with Boston, Woody will have some big shoes to fill at the age of 38. Unlike Wells, Williams' 4.18 ERA last year in 189 innings shows signs of an aging veteran. He is guaranteed a contract next year of 4mil+ if he makes just 15 starts, and that is a clause which may come back to bite the Padres in the ass. Then again, obtaining starting pitchers in the open market is like buying beer at the ballpark. You always overpay but you usually need to do it anyway. Towers still claims trading Williams for Ray Lankford in 01 was his worse move ever and getting him back may have been a sentimental move on his part. Williams is a gutsy player who knows how to pitch, and unless he's injured or loses a few mph off his fastball, should win 12-15 games.

SP-Brian Lawrence...B-Law has been the Padres most consistent starter, compiling 200+ innings in each of his last three seasons. His 15 wins lead the staff last year, and while his 'stuff' will probably never make him a household name in the majors, he's a solid #3 rotation guy. Let alone the fact that he's 28 & signed for a few years at reasonable dollars. A solid player who's numbers shouldn't change much in 05.

SP-Adam Eaton...Eaton is definitely the opposite of Lawrence. Inconsistent. Erratic. He's our Jekyll & Hyde, as he can look brilliant one game(or even for three or four innings), and then horrible the next. I think this is the last year to figure out if he's going to 'learn' how to pitch, or if this is just who he is. He's only 27, and did miss a year and a half with Tommy John surgery, but his 04 numbers were a step down from 03, and Petco heavily favored pitchers last year. The good thing is he started 64 games the last two seasons, so health hasn't been a factor. The Friars will need him to step up this year in order to compete for the division.

SP-Tim Redding...Just acquired for minor league catcher Humberto Quintero, Redding was brought in to fill the 5 spot after new Padre Darrell May looked terrible this spring. Redding is just 27, and while once a promising prospect, dipped off last year with 17 starts and a 5.72 ERA. Thinking among coaches is a change of scenery may revert him back to his 03 campaign, where he had a 3.68 ERA in 32 starts. Redding owns a plus fastball, and has good movement on his off speed pitches, but has struggled with command. This looks like a good trade for the Pads, as Quintero was going to see little action this season behind Hernandez & Ojeda. At 25, his minor league numbers suggest he may actually be a decent pro, but it's a crapshoot at best. The organization held fast to their stance on not rushing young pitchers, as some think minor league ace Tim Stauffer is very close to contributing.

Barry "Boo Hoo" Bonds

2005-03-22T18:26:00.000-08:00

ESPN ran an article today, boo-hoo Barry, outlining Bonds uncertainty in playing at all this season, stating he was, "Mentally and physically done." While this might not sound unreasonable coming from a 40 yr old baseball player, he went on to actually blame the media saying, "I'm tired of my kids crying. You wanted me to jump off a bridge, I finally did. You finally brought me and my family down....So now go pick a different person." Now from a Padre standpoint the possibility of missing an entire season of watching Bonds catapulting HRs out of Petco can only mean good things for the Friars. Barry has killed us throughout his career, and at some point it needs to end. But as some of us actually may have started to enjoy this onslaught as being able to view firsthand one of the greatest players ever, it's time that Barry just shuts his mouth and crawls off somewhere. I just can't take it anymore. Forget the fact that the media likes to jab him a little, thanks in part to his general dislike and 'surliness' he's had for them during his career. There have been plenty of other players who had disdain for reporters in the past, and there will be plenty more to come. But he just doesn't seem to get the fact that when you approach baseball's 'hallowed' records, the ones that people will debate for generations, people WANT to be in awe of you. So is it really so hard to understand that when a man takes what would have already been a HOF career at age 36 and ROCKETS it into superhuman status, writers and fans merely want to find out HOW? Problem is, Barry knew 'exactly' how it happened, and therein lies the problem for a man who seems to have no conscious about cheating the game he claims to love. Let's chronicle the 'metamorphosis...'

Through 1998, Bonds' 13th year in the bigs, he averaged 153 games a year in seasons he started and were not strike years.(94) In 92, his last year for the Pirates, he topped 1.000 ops for the first time, and over the next eight years averaged 1.046. Mind you, this is a 'Herculean' accomplishment reserved for only the finest sluggers to ever play the game. He finally slowed down in 1999, suffering a significant injury and only playing 102 games. At the time he had 445 career HRs, and was 35 years old. Barry could have retired at that point, and would have been a first ballot Hall of Fame inductee.

As many people have pointed out recently, the advantage of using steroids in baseball is probably less related to strength, and more related to recuperation and endurance. Here is where Bonds excelled during the past five seasons. His physique became enormous, face bloated, body carved of granite. He and his trainer accredited that to a new weight regime, and just lots of hard work. We now know differently, but let's look at his numbers during that stretch. Coming off the 99 injury year, at 36 he posted nearly his best OPS to date, 1.128. He hit 49 HRs, a career high. In just 143 games. In 2001 he belted 73 bombs, putting McGwire's 70 on the backburner. His 1.378 OPS was up there with the greatest single seasons of all time. In the next three years the HRs were fewer, but the ridiculous on-base and slugging averages remained in the stratosphere, peaking last season at 1.421. Mind you, only about 10 players a year even crack 1.000.

So as Barry nears Babe Ruth's mark of 714, and with Hank's untouchable total of 755 not far off, it's time to finally ask the question of whether anyone really cares anymore. Because so much of it in recent times seems fraudulent now. A man constantly mentioned in the same breath as Mays, Aaron & Ruth is not only a cheat, but blames the fallout on everyone but himself. I was looking quite forward to booing Barry in the first SF series this April, only to bite my toungue and tip my cap as he launches one into the 'park.' But I've had enough. Go away Barry.

2005 Player Preview

2005-03-09T15:39:00.000-08:00

Outfield

The only change in the outfield this year will be CF where Dave Roberts takes the place of Jay Payton. Our OF was one of the least productive in the NL last year, thanks to drops in career production from all three spots, especially Payton...

LF-Ryan Klesko...Klesko was named to ESPNs first half, "All disappointment team" last year and it would be hard to make an argument against that. After shoulder surgery following '03' he was not able to lift weights in the offseason, and along with the move to homer-unfriendly Petco Park, put up abysmal numbers in '04' before going on the DL in late May with a strained ribcage. As the injury healed, he began to show patience and power at the plate, hitting .380 in September while slugging .582. His final OPS of .847 was actually very good, considering his horrendous start. Like Nevin, Klesko has two years remaining on a pricey contract which includes a no-trade clause, so fans need to keep their fingers crossed that his bad start was due to injuries, and not declining performance.

CF-Dave Roberts...Roberts was a pricey acquisition for Towers this offseason, as it cost us Payton(who certainly may have a better year, and has much better career numbers), and a decent prospect plus cash. Desparate for a leadoff man with some speed, Roberts certainly fits the bill as his 123 stolen bases over the past three years,(averaging only 376 ABs) puts him right atop the league leaders. Throw in the fact he was only caught 27 times, and it's easy to see why you would want him patrolling spacious CF in Petco. But Roberts is 33 this season, has a history of hamstring problems, and has a career OBP of just .335, making this quite a gamble.

RF-Brian Giles...When the team acquired Giles From Pittsburgh halfway through 03, they were hoping to get the player who averaged nearly a 1.031 OPS for the previous four seasons. This type of production warrants trading young players the caliber of Oliver Perez and ROY winner Jason Bay. Instead we got an .849 OPS, his lowest total since becoming an everyday player. At 34, he's in the last year of his contract, and the Pads seem uneasy giving him an extension before seeing exactly which Giles we have. I imagine last year was more of an adjustment than anything else, and while his earlier monster numbers won't resurface, expect him to put up slightly better stats than last year.

Padres Player Preview

2005-03-07T19:59:00.000-08:00

Infield

The Padres infield was a nice surprise last year as it probably exceeded expectations. There won't be any changes this season, as everyone is back and expected to start and be with the team through September. Here's a breakdown of last year and what to expect through 2005...

C-Ramon Hernandez...Ramon only played 111 games last year after a collision at the plate put him on the DL. Acquired in an offseason trade for Mark Kotsay, Hernandez was impressive with his bat and glove, posting an .818 OPS with 18 HRS and 23 doubles in just 384 ABs. At 28, he's at the perfect age to post similar, if not better stats in '05', and having a year to learn the pitchers can only help his play calling. There should be no lingering effects from his injury, so don't be surprised if 500+ ABs posts a .350 OBP, .500 slugging line that would be probably be close to an all-star appearance. It would be nice to see him draw a few more walks, but 25 HRs isn't a reach by any means.

1B-Phil Nevin...The three time Padre MVP had a bounce back year last season as injuries plagued him in 02&03. At 34, don't expect Nevin to ever hit 41 jacks again as he did in 01, but his .860 OPS last year showed he can still be a middle of the order threat when healthy. Phil has two more years left on what was a bloated contract, until recent signings made it a relative bargain if he can get his 500 ABs and post an .850+ops. Being his defense at first is not exactly Keith Hernandez-esque, health is a huge factor. Klesko and X.Nady should see some time in Phil's absence, but it's hard to envision the Pads in the postseason without him playing at least 140 games.

2B-Mark Loretta...What can said about a middle infielder who is solid(if unspectacular) defensively and can hit .335 w/47 doubles? Let alone the fact he's a clubhouse guy and the epitome of a professional? Nothing except M.V.P. The Pads literally found a diamond in the rough a couple years back, as this journeyman second baseman found a home here, played well, and was basically locked up through '06' at a bargain price. Last year was a dream season for Loretta, and it would be greedy to think he can post an .886 OPS again(let alone in 154 games) but dammit I'm gonna be greedy. He'll be 34 in August, but is in great shape, hasn't been overplayed throughout his career, and seems to be a student of the game. Expect at worst a slight drop off from last year, and possibly another team MVP from a man 90% of San Diego probably wouldn't recognize if he was standing beside them at Rubio's.

SS-Khalil Greene...Getting injured down the stretch may have cost 'Spicolli' the NL rookie of the year award, but after watching this kid play all year you'd doubt he even cared. His .795 OPS was well above the league average at his position, and his steady, and at times, spectacular play at SS was a joy to watch. He's only 25, is years from free agency, and has the poise and work ethic to be really special. Expect a slight increase in his offensive numbers across the board, and a possible NL-all star reserve spot in July.

3B-Sean Burroughs...Sean took a step backward last year as he was asked to do something that few 24 yr olds(let alone ones that play 3B) are ever asked to do. Lead off. While his .348 OBP wasn't terrible,(you'd love to see newcomer Dave Roberts post that) his 28 extra base hits in 523 ABs(only 2 of which were HRs) didn't scare pitchers enough to make him effective. Hopefully dropping in the order this year will help him concentrate on hitting for more power, as his .365 slugging % was flat out unacceptable for a corner infielder. Youth and a strong work ethic, combined with great genetics are on his side. His defensive improved last year, and while not yet gold-glove caliber by any means, was above average. Look for Burroughs to rediscover some gap power this season, otherwise don't be surprised to see X.Nady(who was originally drafted as a third baseman) see some playing time.

2005 NL West cont.

2005-02-24T21:07:00.000-08:00

San Francisco Giants(91-71)
Acquired: RP-Armando Benitez, OF-Moises Alou, SS-Omar Visquel, C-Mike Matheny
Departed: C-AJ Pierzynski, RP-Dustin Hermanson

If Father Time can hold off just a little longer, the Giants may have had the best offseason in the west. Alou is 38, but had a .919 OPS last year in a healthy 601 ABs. He will provide adequate protection behind Bonds if he can stay in the lineup. Visquel, 37, provides solid defense at shortstop, but average offense. Matheny has never been known for his hitting but is considered one of the best defensive/playcalling catchers in the game. Benitez is a huge upgrade, and should compete for most saves in the NL. The Giants are one of/if not the oldest team in baseball and will need a healthy Bonds to be in the thick of things. The steroid mayhem will probably not effect Barry, but old age eventually will. Now that testing is more rigorous, we'll see if his 40 year old body can come anywhere close to posting the superhero numbers we've seen since 2001. Stopper Jason Schmidt remains a top Cy Young candidate, and will lead a staff that seems to get the job done.

2005 NL West cont.

2005-02-24T13:07:00.000-08:00

San Diego Padres(87-75)
Acquired: SP-Woody Williams, OF-Dave Roberts
Departed: SP-David Wells, OF-Jay Payton

The Padres basically decided to stand pat this offseason, as escalated free agent salaries provided little in terms of value this year. Free agent pitchers were highly sought as usual, and Towers obviously decided he wasn't going to overpay for a starter. That said, the Padres may be the better for it as almost the entire team will return from last season. Dave Roberts will take over for Payton in CF, and if he can stay healthy will provide some speed in the leadoff spot. Hopefully he can push his OBP above his career .335 average. This also allows Burroughs to drop into the bottom of the order and concentrate on hitting for more power and driving in runs. There are a lot of question marks with the Padres this year, which I will detail later on, but if they can stay injury free, should be able to compete for the division.

2005 NL West cont.

2005-02-23T20:59:00.000-08:00

Los Angeles(93-69)
Acquired: OF-JD Drew, 2b-Jeff Kent, SP-Derek Lowe, 3b-John Valentin
Departed: 3b-Adrian Beltre, 2b-Alex Cora, OF-Shawn Green, OF-Steve Finley

The Dodgers certainly spent some money this winter, acquiring three big name free agents, while letting MVP candidate Beltre walk. Lowe/Kent/Drew will earn roughly 40mil a year, and along with Valentin(3.5mil), and resigned Odalis Perez(8mil) means the Dodgers have committed over 50 million to just five players, only two of which are under 31. Drew is the big question mark this season, as the injury plagued 5-tooler finally compiled a 500AB season last year. When healthy, he's always put up stellar numbers. Kent is 36, and may find Dodger Stadium very unfriendly to his hitting stats. Valentin is 35, and doesn't produce much outside of some HR pop. Offensively they will need a healthy Drew, anti-aging from Valentin & Kent, and continued improvement from young guns like Bradley, Werth, and Choi to keep pace. Their staff may be the best in the division, with Lowe, Penny, Perez, and Weaver all capable of winning 15+ games. Overall this is a team perfectly capable of repeating as division champs but health & defense will be big question marks going into the season.

2005 NL West(cont.)

2005-02-18T12:27:00.000-08:00

Colorado(68-94)
Acquired: A handful of journeyman scrubs
Departed: OF-Jeremy Burnitz, 3b-Vinny Castilla

The Rockies did little this offseason to improve their chances of winning and will continue to rebuild with young players. P-Jeff Francis is a big left hander who could develop into a solid starter if he can shake off the high ERA that comes with the Rocky Mountain air. Helton continues to put up MVP numbers every year, but after signing a 10 yr contract a few years back at high $$, is near impossible to trade. Most preseason polls have the Rocks in the bottom five going into '05' and it's hard to make an argument against that.

2005 NL West Preview

2005-02-17T12:55:00.000-08:00

With the preseason around the corner, lets take a look at how the teams have changed in the offseason:

ARIZONA(51-111)
acquired: 3b-Troy Glaus, P-Russ Ortiz, OF-Shawn Green, P-Javier Vasquez
Departed: OF-Steve Finley, 1b-Richie Sexson, P-Randy Johnson

Arizona finished in the basement last year after old age and injuries caught up with a team that was built for a successful World Series run in 2002. After dealing the Big Unit to the Yankees they retool with ex-NL phenom Vasquez, and overpaid free agent ex-Brave, Ortiz. Glaus, at 28, is in his prime but coming off an injury related year which saw only 208 ABs. When healthy, he's as dangerous a 3B-hitter in the bigs, but has missed significant time already in each of the last two seasons. Green, at 32, was resigned for three more seasons and high dollars. Quite a reach being his last two years have him bathing in mediocrity. His peak years at 29,30 were well above his career averages, and it's safe to say are probably not going to resurface. Ortiz will be 31 this year, and his ERA has risen significantly in each of the last three years. Vasquez is still rumored to be on the trading block. The D-backs will need to be healthy this year, and have a few players rebound to have any chance at the division. More than likely they will be slugging it out with Colorado to keep out of the cellar.

Steroids, steroids everywhere!

2005-02-15T20:49:00.000-08:00

I haven't read Canseco's hatchet-job of a book yet, and not sure that I will for that matter.(unless someone tosses it in my mailbox after they've read it) But does this crap really surprise anyone out there at all!? Anybody who has spent any time in a weight room has had strong suspicions for years that a large majority of players have done steroids at one point or another. But who would have guessed so many would have already been named? If you look at MVP candidates over the last 15 years we're talking about Canseco, McGwire, Giambi, Caminiti, Bonds, Sheffield, Palmiero, Gonzales, Rodriguez, Boone. I mean where does it end? Anybody who recalls a guy coming back from offseason and the first words you say are, "Wow, he looks like he packed on 20 lbs of hard muscle" has probably done steroids. I'm tired of hearing how all these guys are suddenly 'gym-rats'. How often do you hear a trainer proclaim, "If you only saw how hard he works out!" Well of course he fricken does! He's loaded with testosterone! If you could gain 20lbs in three months you'd lift like you were possessed as well! That said, I doubt any will have the courage of a Caminiti and cough up a confession. These guys liken it to cheating on there taxes. Everybody's doing it. I can live with the label that will now be put on the last 15 years as being a 'juiced' era, but what of the records? Will there always be that unwritten asterisks there? You'd have to think so.....On a local note, chime in with all the Pads you think were 'juiced' at one point or another. I specifically remember Carlos Hernandez coming off his injury and being jacked out of this world. Can't say it helped his game though...

Greetings!

2005-02-15T20:37:00.000-08:00

Greetings fellow baseball enthusiasts! This site is dedicated to basically rambling about the world of baseball, with specific emphasis on my local team, the Padres. I am a 10+ year transplant from the Ny area,(a harmless Met fan mind you...is there any team that can achieve less with more!?) and have developed a fondness over the years for the men formerly in brown.(I guess it's now men in 'sand?') Feel free to chime in on my opinions any way you'd like, as I am open to criticism, praise, cheers, jeers, or anything else. After all, it's just my two cents...